North Texas Housing Market 2026: What the Median Price and Inventory Numbers Actually Show
5 mins read
Key Takeaways
The median North Texas price did not move
Price per square foot fell a little
Inventory reached 4.4 months
Rates barely moved from last August
In June, the median home in North Texas sold for $405,000. In June of last year, the median home in North Texas sold for $405,000.
Not close to it, that’s the same number.
Two questions come up more than any others right now: are people still getting into bidding wars here, and are prices about to fall? That one flat line answers both, though it answers them differently depending on which part of the metroplex you happen to be standing in. Here is what the current data actually says, with the sources attached so you can check my work.
Are Home Prices Dropping in North Texas?
Not at the metro level. According to the MetroTex Association of REALTORS, the median sales price across North Texas held unchanged at $405,000 in June 2026, while the average sales price rose 1% to $535,376.
But one number underneath that moved. Median price per square foot fell 2% to $190.03.
Run the division and something interesting falls out. At $190.03 per foot, a $405,000 median home works out to roughly 2,131 square feet. A year earlier, at a slightly higher price per foot, the same $405,000 bought roughly 2,089. That is about 40 additional square feet for identical money, close to the footprint of a small home office.
Translation: the same dollar is buying a little more house than it did a year ago. That is math rather than a survey, so treat it as a directional signal instead of a precise measurement. But it lines up with what I am seeing in showings, and it is a far more useful read than any headline about prices crashing.
The average still hides a real split. In established, supply-constrained areas like Plano, Frisco, Southlake, and the Park Cities, land is largely built out (out of room), and move-in-ready resale homes when priced right still go under contract in a matter of weeks. In outlying growth areas where new construction is plentiful, resale inventory has stacked up and buyers have genuine comparable options.
Statewide, the picture is similar. Texas REALTORS® reported a Q2 2026 median price of $340,000, unchanged from the same quarter last year.
What Does 4.4 Months of Inventory Mean?
Active listings across North Texas rose 4% year over year to 31,914 homes, pushing months of inventory to 4.4. Analysts at the Texas Real Estate Research Center consider 4 to 5 months of inventory to indicate a market balanced between supply and demand, which is where North Texas sits right now. Statewide inventory ran a bit looser, at 5.4 months in Q2 2026.
Translation: not a seller's market, not a buyer's market. It’s somewhere in the middle, which is the least dramatic and most workable condition this region has offered in years.
If you are buying, the practical change is time. You can see a house twice, compare it against 3 others, and use the protections written into the Texas contract without worrying that exercising them costs you the house. Texas handles inspections through a negotiated option period rather than the inspection contingency used in many other states, and financing protection runs through the Third Party Financing Addendum. Repair credits and closing cost contributions are also back on the table across a lot of price bands.
If you are selling, buyers are shopping around, comparing pricing and presentation are now the engine that drives the sale forward. Correct pricing off current comparable sales, deep cleaning, touch-up paint, and professional photography are the difference between 3 weeks on market and a price reduction in 6.
Take a breather: If all of this sounds daunting, don’t worry, that’s what I’m here for. Set up a free call with me and let’s look at your options.
📱 Text me to get startedWhere Are Mortgage Rates, and Does Waiting Help?
According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed averaged was 6.67% as of August 13, 2026, down from 6.69% the prior week. A year ago it averaged 6.58%.
Translation: rates are essentially where they were last August, a fraction higher. There has been no collapse and no spike. The market has largely adjusted to this range, which is why prices have stayed flat instead of falling. Your actual rate will depend on your lender's daily pricing, your credit profile, down payment, and a few other factors, so treat any survey number as a reference point rather than a quote. I am not a lender, and this is not your interest rate. I can connect your with trusted lenders though! (They’re awesome)
Where the meaningful savings are hiding right now is new construction. Builders remain the most aggressive source of financing help in this market, and combined incentive packages on Texas new builds have commonly been reported in the $10,000 to $35,000 range, typically routed through the builder's preferred lender and weighted toward rate buydowns. Standing inventory that has been complete for 90+ days is generally where the strongest packages sit.
Two cautions, and I give both to every buyer. First, compare total loan cost rather than year-one payment, because a temporary buydown reverts to the note rate. Second, the person in the model home represents the builder. That is their job and they do it well. You are still entitled to your own representation, and the contract on the table is the builder's paper, not the standard Texas contract. See why you should work with a REALTOR® when buying a new home.
So What Kind of Market Is This?
Balanced, and behaving rationally.
There is no bubble deflating in North Texas. Prices are flat because the fundamentals underneath them are intact. Previously overheated areas are cooling off, while other areas are heating up. The Dallas Fed has noted DFW leads the nation in workforce growth this decade with roughly 450,000 net new jobs, and Collin County added nearly 43,000 residents in a recent 12-month period, second among all U.S. counties for numeric gain.
The 3 numbers that matter most right now:
$405,000 median, unchanged. Sellers who price to current comparable sales are still transacting at last year's values.
4.4 months of inventory. You have room to inspect, compare, and negotiate without losing the house.
6.67 percent on the 30-year. Flat year over year, which removes most of the argument for waiting on a rate move that may not arrive.
Here's What This All Means for You
If your budget works and you plan to stay in the home for a while, this is a reasonable market to buy in, and you have more negotiating room than buyers had 2 years ago. If you are trying to time the exact bottom, the flat median suggests you will be waiting a long while for a signal that may never clearly arrive.
FAQ
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Not at the metro level. The median North Texas sales price was unchanged YoY at $405,000 in June 2026, though median price per sqft declined 2%. Performance varies significantly by submarket, with established built-out cities holding value better than outlying areas carrying heavy new construction inventory.
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That depends on your budget and your timeline rather than the market. With inventory in the balanced range and rates roughly flat year over year, buyers have more selection and more negotiating room than they had in 2021 or 2022. If you plan to stay several years, the current conditions are workable.
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Freddie Mac's survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.65% as of August 20, 2026. Your individual rate will differ based on your lender, credit profile, and down payment, so get a live quote rather than relying on a national average.
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Analysts at the Texas Real Estate Research Center generally define four to five months of inventory as balanced between supply and demand. North Texas sat at 4.4 months in June 2026, meaning neither buyers nor sellers hold decisive leverage across the market as a whole.
Conclusion
A flat median is not a warning sign. It is what a market looks like when demand and supply have finally met each other, and it is the most negotiable set of conditions North Texas buyers have had in several years. With the right advice, buyers have a chance, and sellers have a chance. Know your 3 numbers, and feel free to book a free 20-minute call if you want to talk through what they mean for your specific situation.
